I believe that the best way to develop a Nations economic policy is by having low taxes on both income and business. I would go as far as saying that the income tax should once again be eliminated, but that could be another post. Cutting the government’s size and making it leaner and faster to incorporate new ideas or new technology would also lead to better services and better sustainability.
One of the biggest problems that I see in providing services and sustainability is the inability to predict the future. Many politicians and government agencies do a very poor job of doing research. A great example is the entitlement programs in the United States. On page 302 of our book, 6th edition, there is a very nice table that shows how spending on the Welfare State, entitlement programs, has pretty much gone out of control, from $13 billion in 1954 to $1.9 trillion in 2008. This is called mandatory spending as referred to on page 302 in the book. Many can look at that amount and say that it is unsustainable. This number is actually way off because the federal government does not follow the same accounting rules that they make companies and state/local governments follow. According to a USA Today news article from 2007, the federal government does not have to, “count expenses immediately when a transaction occurs, even if the payment will be made later.” What this leads to is finding out that the federal government, or the taxpayer, is now on the hook for $59.1 trillion in liabilities. As of 2007 that amount was equal to $516,348 for every US Household. http://www.usatoday.com/news/washington/2007-05-28-federal-budget_N.htm
Another example of the government’s inability to do proper research is the CBO. The CBO, The Congressional Budget Office, is suppose to advise the government on what the effects will be with the changes that they plan to make. The problem with the CBO is that they don’t take past behavior into consideration and how tax changes can and does change a person’s behavior.
In the book Basic Economics by Thomas Sowell on page 396, Mr. Sowell writes about how predicted tax revenue increases did not come about in the state of Alaska when they tried to raise the tax rates on cigarettes:
The tax was to go into effect October 1, 1997. Smokers struck back by buying an astounding 175 million more cigarettes than usual in the three months before the tax deadline. Richard Watts of the Great Alaska Tobacco Company told the local papers that some smokers even bought sixty-carton cases-at $1,200 each-rather than pay the tax. As for Alaska’s Department of Revenue, it saw its revenue estimates go up in smoke: collections slowed 60 percent following the infamous increase date.
Another example, more specific to the CBO, that Mr. Sowell writes about is on page 397. In 1986 the CBO had advised the congress that raising the capital gains tax rate from 20 to 28 percent would increase revenues received from the tax. It was the opposite that happened and tax revenues actually fell. Mr. Sowell goes on to write, “Conversely, cuts in the capital gains tax rate in 1978, 1997, and 2003 all led to increased revenues from that tax.”
As we can tell the government is not a great predictor of future revenues. This leads me to another problem, useless and empty talk. Many times you will hear politicians and different figures in government talk about this tax increases or tax cuts. Here is the problem, telling everybody that this will be a, “$500 billion tax increase” or a, “$400 billion tax cut” is inaccurate. All that the government can do is raise or lower the tax rates and this will have an effect on the tax revenues. Nobody can actually claim that it will be a, “$500 billion tax increase” or a, “$400 billion tax cut” because they don’t know. The actual consequences of the tax cuts or tax increases will not be known until after they have been in acted.
Now here is a problem that I have noticed. Going back to the top of this post where I was talking about mandatory spending on entitlement programs, we can see how guesses and government projections have made the current system completely unsustainable. More problems arise when people stand up and try to correct or overhaul the current entitlement programs, trying to make them leaner and more efficient. This will usually bring out the fear mongers, Ahh, they want to take away your health care, they want to steal your retirement, and they want to end school funding…Blah, blah, blah, blah. So when somebody tries to stand up and correct these issues they get shut down in the media and told to go hide in a hole somewhere. That’s a big problem when programs can not be re-organized or overhauled to fit our needs of today, not the needs of the 1930’s or the 1960’s.
All of this leads me to say that in order to create an economic policy that provides services and sustainability we need to be free to reform and we need to be free of government. One of the biggest problems with government is that they try to make a one size fits all policy with everything that they do, it can’t and it won’t work. We need taxes to help the ones in need, but we need to get the government out of our lives to make any economic policy sustainable. People need to be put in charge of their health care, retirement and education among others.